Metabolites stratify future major depressive disorder risk in obese population: a longitudinal machine learning analysis
Xiaobing Zhai (翟小兵), Abao Xing (邢阿宝)
Obesity is a well-established risk factor for major depressive disorder (MDD), yet the risk is not uniform, highlighting the need for precise risk stratification. Our study utilized UK Biobank data from 41,459 obese participants (median follow-up 14.4 years) to develop a metabolomics-based prediction model. By integrating 14 machine learning algorithms, we identified 14 key metabolites that stratify future MDD risk. The optimized LightGBM model achieved AUCs of 0.844, 0.824, and 0.834 for 3-, 5-, and 9-year predictions, significantly outperforming existing clinical models. Mediation Mendelian randomization confirmed causal mediation through specific metabolic pathways. Our findings challenge the notion of a uniform obesity-MDD association, offering a precision medicine approach for early identification of high-risk individuals.




